Rafael Grossi: the next Iran nuclear deal will look very different

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has unequivocally declared the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) obsolete, stating that any future agreement must be "very different" to account for Tehran irreversible nuclear advancements. This stark assessment, delivered amid stalled diplomatic efforts, underscores the significant erosion of international monitoring and the escalating risk of proliferation. The original JCPOA, designed to curb Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, has been effectively defunct since the US withdrew in 2018. In response, Iran has consistently breached its commitments, now enriching uranium to 60% purity, far beyond the 3.67% limit and uncomfortably close to weapons-grade material. Grossi's agency faces critical blind spots due to Iran's restrictions on surveillance cameras and verification mechanisms, raising fears about its "breakout time." With Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium expanding and its advanced centrifuges spinning, the window for a diplomatic resolution narrows daily. Western powers, including the E3 nations, are grappling with how to re-engage Tehran, which demands comprehensive sanctions relief and guarantees against future US unilateral action. The path forward involves either a radical shift in negotiating postures or the increased specter of regional instability, leaving the international community to ponder the true cost of inaction.