100 days of Iran-US war: Who’s winning, who’s losing, and why India is worried

One hundred days into the Iran-US war, the conflict continues to send shockwaves across global markets and regional stability, with recent hostilities near the Strait of Hormuz underscoring the persistent volatility. Despite intermittent diplomatic overtures, efforts to de-escalate have largely stalled, fueled by fresh Iranian missile and drone attacks on Gulf bases and US retaliatory strikes on Iranian surveillance sites. This latest escalation comes as global growth forecasts are being slashed, with Fitch revising 2026 global growth to 2.4% due to the protracted energy crisis. The primary battleground remains the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran's selective restrictions and the US naval blockade have severely choked off maritime traffic, keeping Brent crude prices stubbornly above $90 per barrel—a 28.4% increase from pre-war levels. This sustained disruption has triggered a global fuel crisis, elevating diesel and jet fuel costs dramatically, and pushing economies like India into precarious territory. New Delhi, heavily reliant on energy imports through the Strait, is grappling with soaring cooking gas prices, a depreciating rupee, and a significant drain on its foreign exchange reserves, prompting the government to consider an Economic Stabilization Fund. The immediate future hinges on the viability of ongoing, albeit fragile, negotiations, mediated by countries like Pakistan and Qatar. President Trump has expressed cautious optimism, yet deep disagreements over Iran's nuclear program and demands for a complete ceasefire in Lebanon persist. With both sides testing red lines, the prospect of a wider regional conflagration remains a critical concern, leaving global professionals to watch for any sign of a breakthrough—or further destabilization—in this economically punishing standoff.