The new German military question

Germany's accelerated military build-up and a new, nationally focused defense strategy, 'Verantwortung für Europa,' are raising alarms across Europe, particularly in France, which fears Berlin is shifting towards unilateral action in security. This concern is starkly underscored by the recent collapse of the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), a cornerstone Franco-German-Spanish defense project, signaling a fragmentation of European cooperative efforts. The 'Zeitenwende' initiated in 2022 has seen Germany's defense spending surge, with the 2026 budget reaching over €108 billion and its foreign minister projecting spending to surpass 4% of GDP this year, aiming for Europe's strongest conventional army. However, the breakdown of FCAS over industrial control disputes between France's Dassault Aviation and Germany's Airbus Defence and Space, coupled with reports of Germany exploring US-made Tomahawk missiles, reveals deep-seated tensions. These developments come amidst calls for greater European strategic autonomy, complicated by doubts over long-term US security commitments and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, pushing Europe to define its collective defense future. As Berlin outlines a 20-year roadmap to boost its Bundeswehr to 460,000 personnel, the immediate challenge lies in whether Chancellor Friedrich Merz and President Emmanuel Macron can deliver on their pledge for new, 'genuinely relevant' Franco-German defense cooperation following the FCAS failure, with a roadmap due in July. The trajectory will determine if Europe can forge a cohesive defense identity, balancing national ambitions with the urgent need for integrated capabilities, or if a fractured approach risks weakening the continent's collective security and strategic independence.