Cacau atinge máxima de 5 meses em Londres; café também sobe

London cocoa futures have skyrocketed to a five-month high, hitting £3,753 per metric ton this Wednesday, as severe El Niño fears threaten to decimate West Africa's crucial 2026/27 cocoa crop. This surge is also mirrored in New York cocoa prices, which touched a five-month peak of $5,040 per ton. Arabica coffee contracts are also feeling the heat, nearing a six-week high at $2.772 per pound amidst delayed harvests in Brazil and concerns over future weather patterns. The alarm bells are ringing loudest for cocoa, with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasting a 67% chance of a 'Super El Niño' this year, a climate phenomenon known for bringing hotter, drier conditions to West Africa, home to over 60% of the world's cocoa production. Early surveys for the upcoming 2026/27 crop are already showing below-average cherelle formation—the small, developing cocoa pods—which spells trouble for the main harvest starting in October. Compounding the issue, heavy rains in Côte d'Ivoire are currently flooding key roads, blocking farmers from reaching their crops and ports, and significantly raising the risk of brown rot disease, further jeopardizing current supplies. This immediate crisis has forced major analysts like StoneX to drastically cut their global cocoa surplus estimates for 2026/27, signaling a much tighter market than previously thought. The ripple effect is already being felt, with Côte d'Ivoire, the world's largest cocoa producer, temporarily halting new export contracts for its 2026/27 main crop as it awaits clearer production estimates. Market watchers are now intensely focused on August-October rainfall in West Africa, as insufficient moisture during this critical pod development period could send cocoa prices even higher. While coffee markets have seen a broader downward trend this year due to improved harvest outlooks in major producing nations like Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, and Ethiopia, the immediate impact of Brazilian harvest delays and El Niño worries for the next crop highlight the extreme volatility gripping agricultural commodities. Consumers should brace for potential price hikes for chocolate and coffee, as climate change continues to inject uncertainty into global food supply chains.