Goldman Sachs: AI to Reshape Indian Jobs, Not Spark Mass Losses

A fresh report from Goldman Sachs, released today, indicates that Generative AI (Gen-AI) is set to significantly reshape India's job market, but without causing widespread job losses. Instead, the focus will be on 'job reallocation,' meaning how jobs change and shift. The investment bank predicts that while 8-12% of India's non-agricultural jobs are at risk of being replaced by Gen-AI, a much larger portion—42-48%—will actually be made better or 'complemented' by the technology, enhancing productivity rather than eliminating roles. This shift means that jobs involving routine tasks, especially in the services sector like education, media, financial, and professional services, are most exposed to both automation and enhancement. Clerical and technician roles face a higher chance of substitution, but even there, Gen-AI is expected to free up workers from repetitive duties, letting them focus on more important, higher-value tasks. On the flip side, jobs requiring physical labor, such as construction and manufacturing, are largely safe from AI automation. The report also estimates that Gen-AI could boost India's annual labor productivity growth by about 0.4 percentage points over the next decade. Looking ahead, India is already preparing for this AI-driven future. In October 2025, NITI Aayog launched a 'Roadmap for Job Creation in the AI Economy,' aiming to create up to 4 million new jobs in the next five years through a 'National AI Talent Mission.' Separately, the Indian government is also drafting a new National Employment Policy to deal with the potential disruption AI brings, with an estimated 12-18 million jobs potentially affected by 2025-2026. The success of India's Gen-AI adoption will heavily depend on crucial factors like better digital infrastructure, affordable computing power, and reliable energy.