Hormuz: Tankers Return, But Fresh Attacks Keep Global Oil Markets on Edge

After months of near-paralysis following a fierce conflict, the Strait of Hormuz is seeing a welcome, albeit cautious, return of maritime traffic. Commercial vessel transits have surged by over 50% in the last two weeks, with supertankers and crude carriers re-entering the Persian Gulf in significant numbers, hinting at renewed confidence among shipowners. This follows a mid-June interim peace deal and a Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran aimed at de-escalating the February 2026 'Iran War' that had brought global oil flows to a near standstill. However, the path back to normalcy remains rocky. Despite the ceasefire, recent days have seen fresh attacks on commercial vessels, including a drone strike on a cargo ship and an oil tanker, reigniting security fears and causing a fresh dip in traffic. While an initial wave of exports has brought oil prices down from their wartime peaks, the lingering mine threats, Iran's assertions of control over shipping lanes, and some vessels still switching off their transponders underscore the fragile state of affairs. For now, major Gulf producers like Saudi Arabia are swiftly restarting exports, even redirecting some oil to distant markets like the US West Coast as Asian demand catches up. But with traffic still significantly below pre-war levels and peace talks ongoing in Switzerland amid continued regional skirmishes, the next few weeks will be critical. The world is watching to see if this fragile calm can hold, allowing global energy supply chains to truly recover from one of the most disruptive periods in recent memory.