Latvia Votes Amidst Russia's Shadow; Coalition Chaos Looms After Polls Close

Polls have just closed across Latvia in a pivotal parliamentary election, with the nation's steadfast pro-Europe and pro-Ukraine stance facing a critical test against a backdrop of escalating Russian threats and domestic economic anxieties. The snap election, called after the previous government's collapse, saw incumbent Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs' United List alliance projected as the frontrunner, though without a clear majority, setting the stage for potentially tricky coalition negotiations. The election arrives only months after Prime Minister Evika Siliņa resigned in May 2026, her coalition crumbling amidst public criticism over the government's response to stray drones suspected to be from Ukraine entering Latvian airspace, highlighting acute security vulnerabilities. While Latvia has consistently championed a strong Western alignment, pushing for robust sanctions against Moscow and allocating nearly five percent of its GDP to defense, populist parties like Sovereign Power and Latvia First have gained traction by focusing on the cost-of-living crisis and hinting at a softer line on Russia, appealing to a segment of the population, including some Russian-speakers. With fourteen parties vying for seats in the 100-member Saeima, and roughly one in five voters undecided before today's ballot, the coming days will be dominated by complex political bargaining. The United List and its traditional allies, including New Unity and the National Alliance, will likely seek to form a stable pro-Western government, but the rising influence of economically focused populist forces could complicate the path forward, potentially leading to a fragmented parliament and prolonged discussions to build a working coalition.