Monsoon deficit and India’s agricultural vulnerability: In graphics

India is grappling with a severe blow to its agricultural backbone as the June 2026 monsoon rainfall deficit has hit a staggering 43% nationally, primarily due to the intensifying El Niño weather pattern. This alarmingly dry start, touted as one of the driest Junes in over a century, is creating widespread concern for the crucial Kharif season, threatening food security and farmer livelihoods across the nation. The weak monsoon has left vast swathes of India parched, with many states like Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Madhya Pradesh reporting rainfall deficiencies of 58% to 85%, significantly delaying the sowing of essential crops such as pulses, oilseeds like soybean, and paddy. Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has acknowledged the gravity, identifying 315 districts, with 111 high-priority zones having limited irrigation, as highly vulnerable. The Centre is now pushing contingency plans, urging states to promote drought-resistant, short-duration crop varieties and diversification to mitigate the looming crisis. With the India Meteorological Department forecasting below-normal rainfall for the entire 2026 monsoon season—the first such prediction in 11 years—the coming weeks are critical. Authorities are closely monitoring the situation as a prolonged deficit could spark food inflation, particularly for vegetables, pulses, and edible oils, despite currently comfortable buffer stocks of rice and wheat. This ongoing environmental challenge also raises worries for rural economic activity and could exacerbate Non-Performing Assets in the agricultural loan sector, demanding agile policy responses to protect millions of rain-fed farmers.