Netanyahu's Likud Surges in Polls, Yet Majority Remains Elusive Ahead of October Election

Just weeks before Israel's October 27 general election, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu right-wing Likud bloc is showing a significant surge in recent polls, now either leading or drawing even with the opposition after months of trailing. This shift, highlighted by a Kan public broadcaster poll on September 6, places Netanyahu's bloc at 52 seats against the opposition's 51, marking a critical moment in a highly contested race. However, a clear path to the 61-seat government majority in the 120-member Knesset remains elusive for both sides. This newfound momentum for Netanyahu's camp is largely driven by the predicted entry of new right-wing parties like Ofer Winter's 'People of Israel' and a merger between Religious Zionism and Zehut into the Knesset, bolstering the Likud's strength. Meanwhile, the newly formed centrist Hendel-Zelekha party, projected to win four seats, emerges as a potential kingmaker, further complicating coalition math for both blocs. The election is unfolding against a backdrop of deep internal divisions and ongoing regional tensions, including the aftermath of the October 7 attacks, recent conflicts in Gaza, and increased Israeli annexation measures in the West Bank. As the October 27 election draws nearer and parties finalize their candidate lists, the race is expected to intensify. The inability of either major bloc to secure an outright majority means that post-election coalition negotiations will be critical, with smaller parties, particularly the unaligned Hendel-Zelekha faction and various Arab parties, holding significant sway. Observers are watching closely to see if any bloc can break the deadlock or if Israel is headed for another period of political uncertainty.