Nifty's Eight-Week Slide: RBI Policy, Global Turmoil Test Indian Market Resilience

The Indian stock market's key index, Nifty, has hit an unsettling milestone, recording its eighth straight weekly decline, the longest such losing streak in 25 years. Closing at 22,421.95 on October 4, 2026, the market now anxiously eyes the crucial 22,200 support level as it faces significant pressure. This sharp correction has seen major benchmarks like the Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex fall nearly 6% in September alone, creating a cautious mood among investors. Global forces are largely behind this slump. Elevated US Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield hitting levels not seen since 2002 around 5.3% on October 1, are drawing global money away from emerging markets like India. Simultaneously, crude oil prices remain stubbornly high, with Brent crude nearing $100 a barrel due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, fueling inflation worries and impacting India's import bill. Adding to the woes, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have continued their aggressive selling, pulling out around $40 billion from Indian equities over the past two years, including significant outflows in September 2026. All eyes are now on upcoming domestic events. The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is meeting from October 5 to 7, 2026, with a decision on the Repo rate expected on October 7; many analysts are predicting a potential 25-basis-point hike, which would be the first since February 2023. The 57th GST Council Meeting, also scheduled for October 7, will focus on procedural reforms rather than rate changes, while the September-quarter earnings season begins, with corporate results from major companies like TCS anticipated. Whether these domestic triggers can help stem the tide and defend the 22,200 Nifty support level remains the big question for the week ahead.