Oil Is Crashing. Why Are Gas Prices Still So High?

Former President Donald Trump has ignited a fresh political firestorm, publicly accusing 'big oil companies' of price gouging and ordering the US Department of Justice to investigate why pump prices remain stubbornly high despite a sharp decline in crude oil costs. As of June 25, 2026, crude benchmarks like Brent and WTI have plummeted by roughly 40% from their wartime peaks, settling near pre-conflict levels of $70-$73 per barrel, yet Americans are still paying a national average of $3.91 per gallon for gasoline, a figure well above last year's rates. This disconnect stems from a cocktail of factors, primarily the aftermath of the recent Iran War, which saw the critical Strait of Hormuz disrupted, choking global oil supply and sending prices soaring earlier this year. While an interim peace agreement has eased geopolitical tensions and reopened the strait, the physical supply chain – from tanker routes and insurance to refinery crude slates – takes far longer to normalize than speculative futures markets. Compounding the issue, US refineries are running at near-maximum capacity to meet peak summer driving demand and export needs, but domestic gasoline stockpiles and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve remain at multi-year lows after aggressive drawdowns, creating a strong floor for prices. Moving forward, consumers should anticipate a slow, gradual decline in gasoline prices, with forecasts still projecting the second-highest Fourth of July fuel costs on record at around $3.75 per gallon. The DOJ probe into alleged price gouging, if it gains traction, could introduce new regulatory uncertainties, while the stability of the US-Iran peace deal and the pace of global inventory restocking will dictate how quickly the market truly rebalances. Until then, the lag between falling crude and persistent pump pain will likely keep the issue front and center for motorists and politicians alike.