One Nation Surges to 21% in Tasmania, Shaking Up Traditional Political Landscape

A new DemosAU poll reveals Pauline Hanson's One Nation has burst onto the Tasmanian political scene with a surprising 21% of the primary vote, placing it level with the Australian Labor Party and significantly eroding support for traditional major parties. This groundbreaking survey, conducted between June 21 and July 6, 2026, marks the first time DemosAU has included One Nation in its Tasmanian polling, signaling a dramatic shift in the state's political landscape. The poll highlights a stark decline for the Liberal Party (Tasmania), now leading with only 28%, a significant drop since the July 2025 state election and a February poll, while the combined support for the Liberal and Labor parties has plummeted to 49% from roughly 65% last year. This comes amidst growing voter frustration over issues like housing affordability and the rising cost of living, identified as top concerns by 25% and 24% of voters respectively. The state's political climate has also been turbulent, with Premier Jeremy Rockliff recently facing a censure motion and his government losing two ministers in the weeks leading up to the poll. This significant surge for a party with no elected state representatives and pending registration with the Tasmanian Electoral Commission could lead to a 'very colourful parliament' if replicated in an election, according to political observers. With the next Tasmanian state election anticipated no later than mid-2029, the results suggest a potential for further fragmentation and the increasing importance of minor parties and independents in forming future governments, potentially even leading to a combined Liberal/One Nation majority under Tasmania Hare-Clark electoral system.