Trade Setup for June 1: Nifty hovers around key supports with RBI Policy the next major trigger

Indian equities face a decisive week, with the Nifty 50 index clinging to crucial technical support levels as investors anticipate the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) pivotal monetary policy decision. The market is keenly watching whether the RBI Monetary Policy Committee prioritizes controlling persistent inflation, particularly in food and energy, or leans towards supporting a moderating economic growth trajectory, making its stance on interest rates the primary domestic catalyst. Simultaneously, the geopolitical landscape adds significant volatility, with delicate US-Iran negotiations reaching a critical juncture. The outcome of these high-stakes diplomatic efforts, aimed at de-escalating regional tensions, will profoundly impact global crude oil prices and the security of vital shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz. A breakthrough could stabilize energy markets, easing India's import burden, while a deadlock risks reigniting price surges and supply concerns. All eyes will be on the RBI communique for forward guidance on inflation targeting and liquidity management, setting the tone for domestic equities. Internationally, any statements from Washington or Tehran regarding the ongoing talks will dictate immediate shifts in global commodity markets. Traders will closely monitor Nifty's reaction to key technical thresholds, with the interplay of domestic policy and simmering geopolitical risk promising a volatile trading environment.